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        從全局高度理解和把握世界百年未有之大變局

        發布時間:2019-06-10 09:17:35  |  來源:學習時報  |  作者:羅建波  |  責任編輯:申罡

        核心閱讀


        深入理解世界百年未有之大變局的理論內涵和歷史演進趨勢,深刻認識世界大變局與中國大發展之間的歷史性交匯,有助于我們在世界大變局之下更好維護和延長中國發展的重要戰略機遇期,更好應對世界大發展大變化大調整背景下中國面臨的外部風險和挑戰。


        世界面臨百年未有之大變局,我國發展仍處于并將長期處于重要戰略機遇期,這是習近平總書記對世界發展大勢和中國自身發展作出的重大判斷。深入理解世界百年未有之大變局的理論內涵和歷史演進趨勢,深刻認識世界大變局與中國大發展之間的歷史性交匯,有助于我們在世界大變局之下更好維護和延長中國發展的重要戰略機遇期,更好應對世界大發展大變化大調整背景下中國面臨的外部風險和挑戰。理解大變局的深刻內涵,需要把握8個要點。


        大變局是具有歷史性、時代性和戰略性的重大判斷


        世界百年未有之大變局是習近平總書記站在人類歷史進程的高度,以大國領袖的擔當,對世界發展大勢作出的重大戰略判斷,在當前復雜變化的時代具有舉旗定向的重要意義。作為大戰略判斷,這里的“百年”在本質上是一個大歷史概念,是指一個相對較長且正在發生巨大變化的歷史時期。這里的“世界”,不只是傳統意義的國際關系,而是指視野更為宏大、內涵更為豐富的人類社會。所謂世界百年未有之大變局,是指在一個相對較長的歷史時期深刻影響人類歷史發展方向和進程的世界大發展、大變化、大調整、大轉折、大進步。研究大變局,應該有全局的戰略高度和寬廣的歷史視野。


        大變局體現了認識世界大勢的一種全球維度的大歷史視野


        在當前國際形勢風云變幻、世界不確定性顯著增多的背景下,要清醒把脈人類歷史發展方向和世界發展大勢,更需要有大視野、大格局和大胸懷。習近平總書記明確強調,把握國際形勢要樹立正確的歷史觀、大局觀、角色觀。我們要端起歷史望遠鏡冷靜觀察,善于從中長期把脈人類歷史發展大勢,善于發現世界演進規律,善于從林林總總的表象中把握整體、全局和本質,也需要把中國自身發展置于國際體系變遷大勢之中,善于認識中國的歷史方位和世界作用,善于統籌國內國際兩個大局,在錯綜復雜的形勢下保持戰略定力,在瞬息萬變的世界中贏得戰略主動。


        大變局的本質在于世界秩序的歷史演進,其核心議題是世界秩序的演進方向和發展趨勢


        當前世界歷史演進趨向包括5個“百年之變”。


        一是全球化進程百年之變。世界范圍的商品大流通、貿易大繁榮、投資大便利、技術大發展、人員大流動、信息大傳播不斷深入發展,深刻影響著當今世界的發展模式、交往模式、思維模式和治理模式。


        二是世界經濟格局百年之變。隨著一大批新興大國和發展中國家快速崛起,延續幾個世紀的“大西洋時代”已經演變為大西洋和太平洋“兩洋”并舉并重的新時代。


        三是國際權力格局百年之變。伴隨世界經濟重心的逐步多元,國際力量對比更趨均衡的態勢更加明顯,多極化進程繼續穩步向前推進,特別是亞非拉第三世界國家在實現政治獨立開始全面追求發展和復興,在國際體系中的地位和影響力也在逐步提高。


        四是全球治理體系及治理規則百年之變。隨著全球治理主體和議題更加多元,以及全球治理規則和理念加速演變,長期以來以發達國家“治人”發展中國家“治于人”的全球治理格局也出現了新的變化趨向。


        五是人類文明及交往模式百年之變。一大批新興國家開始成為知識、技術、信息的生產源和傳播源,在方興未艾的新技術、新產業革命中不斷嶄露頭角,同時伴隨中國特色社會主義的不斷發展完善和一些轉軌國家在制度上的不斷探索,世界范圍的思想、觀念、制度、模式也呈現出日益多元的格局。


        大變局的根本動力在于科技革命的突破性進展和制度的偉大創新


        近代以來,人類歷史相繼經歷了三次大的技術革命,推動人類社會相繼進入“蒸汽時代”“電氣時代”和“信息時代”,由此帶來了世界經濟的飛躍性發展以及國際權力格局的重塑。當前,以人工智能、大數據、物聯網、太空技術、生物技術、量子科技為代表的新科技革命正在全面醞釀,由此推動了新產業、新業態、新模式的巨大發展,帶來了人們生產方式、生活方式、思維方式的顯著變化。與科技革命和產業革命相伴隨的是,人類社會在思想和制度層面的創新也在不斷推陳出新,從封建制度、資本主義制度到社會主義制度,每一次社會制度創新都推動了生產力的巨大發展和人的更大程度解放。當前時代,各主要國家紛紛以科技發展和制度創新為依托,以重塑國際規則為手段,推動國際力量對比和國際秩序不斷演變和調整,世界范圍的利益、權力和觀念格局都在發生富有歷史意義的大變化。


        大變局是推動構建人類命運共同體的重要時代背景


        著眼世界中長期發展趨向,世界性的科技和產業革命深入發展的基本態勢不會根本改變,各國各地區相互聯系日益緊密的基本態勢不會根本改變,人類社會追求和平、發展、合作、共贏的強烈愿望不會根本改變,全球化進程不斷深入發展的基本態勢自然也不會根本改變。但同時,在世界大發展大變化大調整的背景下,保護主義、民粹主義思潮明顯抬頭,逆全球化態勢明顯上升,大國競爭明顯回歸。在當今世界充滿不穩定性不確定性因素的今天,習近平總書記明確提出推動構建人類命運共同體的重大愿景,就是旨在回答“建設一個什么樣的世界,如何建設這個世界”這一關乎人類前途命運的重大課題。推動構建人類命運共同體思想為人類社會破解世界難題、攜手共創美好未來提供了中國方案,增添了中國智慧,貢獻了中國力量。


        大變局和中國百年大發展的歷史性交匯是當今世界歷史進程中最富意義的重要方面


        觀察中國與世界關系,既要有“由外向內”的視角,看到世界大變局對中國發展帶來的機遇和挑戰,也要有“內外并舉”的視角,看到中國自身發展本身就是推動世界秩序變化的最重要因素之一,也是從根本上決定中國外部環境的最重要因素。過去70年來,經過長時期的革命、建設和改革尤其是黨的十八大以來的積極努力,黨的面貌、國家的面貌、人民的面貌、軍隊的面貌、中華民族的面貌發生了前所未有的巨大變化。中國綜合國力發展之快、世界影響之大百年未有,中國的世界貢獻、大國責任的快速增長百年未有,中國的道路、理論、制度和文化的全面自信百年未有。自近代以來,久經磨難的中華民族迎來了從站起來、富起來到強起來的偉大飛躍,中國已經站在新的歷史方位上,正以嶄新的姿態屹立于世界的東方。世界大變局與中國大發展的歷史性交匯,是中國實現中華民族偉大復興的重大歷史背景。


        大變局背景下中國戰略機遇期呈現許多新變化新特點


        在當下急劇變動的時代,中國發展戰略機遇期既有歷史延續性,其內涵和條件也在發生新變化,體現出若干新特征。戰略機遇期的內生性和可塑性顯著增強,中國自身國力的增長以及中國與世界關系的顯著變化本身就是決定中國戰略機遇期的最重要的因素,戰略機遇期由此實現了由客觀形成向主動塑造的重大轉變。回首過往,我們比歷史上任何時期都更有能力維護好自身的核心利益,比歷史上任何時期都更有能力統籌好國內國際兩個大局,比歷史上任何時期都更有能力為世界作出重大貢獻。隨著中國綜合國力和世界影響力的不斷增長,中國主動塑造戰略機遇期的能力顯著提高了。正是著眼國際秩序變化的大趨勢以及新時代中國與外部世界關系的深刻轉變,中央因此作出重大判斷,當今世界處于百年未有之大變局,我國發展仍處于并將長期處于重要戰略機遇期。也要看到,新時代中國發展戰略機遇期的環境和條件也在發生顯著變化,中國面臨的戰略競爭有所加劇、戰略風險有所增多、戰略壓力也有所增大,這些多重因素的內外疊加和相互影響極大增加了中國維護和延長戰略機遇期的成本。


        在大變局時代,中國外交要“隨勢”“順勢”,也要積極“謀勢”和“塑勢”


        在全球層面,繼續高舉推動構建人類命運共同體的旗幟,深入參與經濟全球化和全球治理,穩步推進“一帶一路”建設,在繼續深化與各國互利合作之時不斷彰顯中國外交的道義精神。在大國關系層面,當前中國外交面臨的一個迫切任務,是在中美關系顯著復雜的背景下保持戰略自信、維護戰略底線、捍衛自身利益,同時爭取維護中美關系斗而不破的大局,盡力避免中美矛盾的繼續升級和擴散,特別是要盡力避免出現中美全面冷戰或局部熱戰,從而最大限度地維護和延長中國發展的戰略機遇期。在亞太和周邊地區,當前亞太地區秩序的走向尚不明朗,各大國的戰略競爭將會保持一個較長時期的膠著狀態,我們應抓住這一契機,善于下好“先手棋”,秉持和踐行“親誠惠容”理念,繼續深化同周邊國家的利益和情感交融,增加對地區公共產品的供給,不斷推進地區多邊合作機制,不斷提升中國在周邊地區的影響力、感召力和塑造力。在世界百年未有之大變局進程之中,我們要不斷拓展戰略遠見、保持戰略定力、強調戰略運籌,為人類社會貢獻更多中國方案和中國智慧,在國際秩序的發展完善中彰顯中國的責任和道義,在大變局時代把握好中國發展的戰略機遇期。


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