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        智庫中國 > 

        從人民幣匯率機制改革看中國經濟信心

        來源:中國網 | 作者:胡敏 | 時間:2019-05-31 | 責編:

        胡敏 國家行政學院研究員

        對于近期受中美貿易摩擦升級影響人民幣匯率出現快速貶值態勢,中國人民銀行黨委書記、銀保監會主席郭樹清日前表示這是市場情緒所致的短期波動,長期看,我國經濟基本面決定人民幣不可能持續貶值,投機做空人民幣必然遭受巨大損失。

        郭樹清的話至少傳遞出三條信息:一是堅定不移深化人民幣匯率形成機制改革。二是如今人民幣匯率價格形成的市場化程度已經提高,不是誰說“操縱”就能夠“操縱”。三是中國經濟的基本面決定人民幣市場匯率將不斷向購買力平價靠近,人民幣不可能持續貶值,如果投機做空人民幣勢必“飛蛾投火”。

        就在5月29日,美國財政部決定,不將中國列為匯率操縱國。

        筆者認為,郭樹清的判斷是有足夠理由支撐的。

        人民幣匯率形成機制堅持市場化改革方向

        理解人民幣匯率的形成機制,首先要了解人民幣走勢的歷史沿革。改革開放之后,人民幣匯率經過了大致六個階段:

        一是改革開放初期的人民幣匯率高估時期(1979—1980年)。從1973年起,世界進人浮動匯率時代,西方國家貨幣匯率頻繁而大幅度地變動。而在我國國內,商品價格逐漸上漲,人民幣對內價值下降,但此時,人民幣的對外價值不但沒有下降,反而上升。這時候,人民幣匯率水平屬于高估的,并嚴重妨礙了我國商品的出口。

        二是內部貿易結算價時期(1981—1984年)。為鼓勵出口、限制進口、加強外貿的經濟核算和適應我國對外貿易體制的改革,從1981年起,我國實行兩種匯率,一種是使用于非貿易外匯收支的對外公布的匯價,一種是使用于貿易外匯收支的內部結算價。內部貿易結算價定為1美元合2.8元人民幣,它是按1978年全國平均出口換匯成本1美元合2.53元人民幣加上10%的利潤計算來的,直至1984年底停止使用。

        三是人民幣匯率不斷貶值時期(1985—1994年)。1985年以后,我國外貿體制加快改革,人民幣匯價改變以往只隨外幣浮動而變動的情況,根據我國對外經濟發展需要進行調整,逐步起到調節對外經濟的作用。這時候長期以來人民幣匯率的高估以及內部貿易結算價的取消使得出口變得日趨艱難,為了支持出口,有利于其他對外經濟發展的需要,人民幣匯價依據全國出口平均換匯成本變化不斷調低。期間,1986年7月5日,將1美元合3.20元人民幣調至3.70元人民幣;又于 1989年11月調為4.72元人民幣;1990年12月調至5.21元人民幣。從1985至1994年間,人民幣匯率總體不斷下跌,一直到1994年1月 1日匯率并軌前人民幣與美元間匯價在1美元合5.05元人民幣左右的水平。

        四是人民幣匯率小幅升值時期(1994-2005年)。1994年1月1日我國實施人民幣匯率并軌改革,將雙軌并行的5元人民幣兌1美元的官方匯率與調劑中心10元至12元的調劑匯率并軌到8.7,事實上這是采取盯住美元的匯率安排。人民幣官方匯率與外匯調劑價格正式并軌,我國開始實行以市場供求為基礎的、單一的、有管理的浮動匯率制。企業和個人按規定向銀行買賣外匯,銀行進入銀行間外匯市場進行交易,形成市場匯率。中央銀行設定一定的匯率浮動范圍,并通過調控市場保持人民幣匯率穩定。此次匯改對穩定和發展當時的國內經濟和戰勝亞洲金融危機功不可沒。匯率并軌后,我國外匯市場上的人民幣匯率保持基本穩定,人民幣兌美元的匯率基本穩定在l美元兌換8.28元左右。這一期間,我國對外貿易和利用外資呈平穩發展狀態,國際收支連續10年出現雙順差局面。匯率穩中有升,基本平衡在達到1美元兌換8.07元附近。

        五是人民幣匯率走向浮動匯率制(2005年8月-2015年8月)。考慮到浮動匯率安排在應對外部沖擊等多個方面優于固定匯率,能夠避免固定匯率可能導致金融危機的國際傳染和匯率制度的崩潰,我國宣布匯改并正式走向浮動匯率安排。2005年7月21日,我國對完善人民幣匯率形成機制進行改革,人民幣匯率不再盯住單一美元,而是選擇若干種主要貨幣組成一個貨幣籃子,同時參考一籃子貨幣計算人民幣多邊匯率指數的變化,實行以市場供求為基礎、參考一籃子貨幣進行調節、有管理的浮動匯率制度。應該說,這是嚴格意義上的人民幣匯率形成機制的市場化改革,是以市場供求為基礎。匯改后,人民幣匯率從2005年開始基本呈現持續升值的趨勢,最高在2014年初曾升至6.0406。2005年至2015年期間,央行數次調高匯率的日內波幅至中間價基礎上的±2%,以期提升匯率的彈性,但中間價的形成未真正實現浮動。

        六是人民幣匯率走向更加彈性的浮動匯率制(2015年8月至今)。這就是2015年的“811匯改”。2015年8月11日,中國人民銀行宣布調整人民幣對美元匯率中間價報價機制,做市商參考上日銀行間外匯市場收盤匯率,向中國外匯交易中心提供中間報價。這一調整使得人民幣兌美元匯率中間價機制進一步市場化,在中間價的形成中引入市場供求因素,真正提升匯率的波動性,更加真實地反映了當期外匯市場的供求關系。自此后,即期匯率從匯改初期的6.2097貶值到2017年初的6.9557,再回升到目前的6.67左右。此次改革后,我們既增強了匯率彈性,又努力在提高匯率靈活性和保持匯率穩定性之間求得平衡,保持了人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩定。

        人民幣國際地位不斷提高體現中國經濟實力

        近年來,人民幣籃子匯率在全球貨幣中一直表現穩健,得到了國際社會廣泛認可;市場主體和社會公眾越來越適應人民幣匯率的“能貶能升”,對于匯率波動的耐受度和接受度逐步上升和習慣了。

        經過這么多年的匯改,我國政府為了提升人民幣匯率決定的市場化程度,最終實現國際通行的浮動匯率制度,實現“清潔”浮動,這既有利于我國經濟結構的轉型升級,也有利于進一步融入經濟全球化進程,增強國際國內對人民幣幣值的信心。但這個過程仍在推進還沒有完成,所以郭樹清說還要“深化人民幣匯率形成機制改革”。

        諾貝爾獎獲得者蒙代爾關于匯率決定有著名的“不可能三角模型”。即,一個經濟體的貨幣自主權、匯率穩定和資本自由流動之間三者難以兼得。在人民幣實現資本項目可兌換及國際資本自由流動的前提下,既要保證我國貨幣政策的有效性,促進國內金融市場穩定和促進結構改革,又要防范外部風險輸入和跨境資本投機性流出入對匯率市場的沖擊。

        中國央行在貨幣政策目標的關切內容上已從傳統的通貨膨脹擴展到“通貨膨脹+資產價格”兩個維度,在政策應對上從一般意義上的貨幣政策擴展到“貨幣政策+宏觀審慎政策”的雙支柱政策框架,并著力推進中國債券市場的對外開放等,尤其是人民幣與多個國家和國際組織建立了結算貨幣關系。例如,2016年10月人民幣也正式納入國際貨幣基金組織的特別提款權(SDR)。

        可以說,人民幣的國際地位取得了長足進展。盡管為了循序漸進推進人民幣匯率形成機制改革,特別是在穩幣值、防風險和增彈性中,我們需要實施必要的、有節制的干預措施,以穩定對人民幣波動的市場預期,但絕不是所謂的“匯率操縱”。事實上,在人民幣日益國際化、市場化的進程中也“操縱不了”。至于能否敢賭“人民幣持續貶值”而“做空人民幣一把”以博取厚益,郭樹清給出的明確信號就是“投機做空人民幣必然遭受巨大損失”。

        近期人民幣匯率受中美貿易摩擦升級影響出現了短期波動是正常的。長期看,我國經濟基本面決定人民幣不可能持續貶值。理由就是中國仍是世界經濟增長的最大引擎,具備極好的市場空間和增長潛力。隨著經濟發展質量的提升,人民幣市場匯率將不斷向購買力平價靠近。如果按照去年中國GDP是13萬億美元,增速是6.6%;美國GDP是20萬億美元,增速是2.9%,中國的人民幣匯率的購買力平價趨向區間將從目前人民幣兌美元的1:6.6向更有想象力的升值空間邁進。無疑,這是市場潛力的較量、經濟韌性的較量和對人民幣未來升值空間的預期。也就是說,短期博取小幅波動愿意投機風險可以,但從趨勢上看,必然是“火中取栗得不償失”的。(責任編輯 蔣新宇)

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