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        智庫中國 > 

        美國霸凌行徑徒勞無益 中國有能力應對挑戰

        來源:人民日報 | 作者: | 時間:2019-06-10 | 責編:李曉曼

         

        6月5日,中國社會科學院舉辦“中美經貿摩擦問題與出路”國家高端智庫論壇。與會專家表示,中美合則兩利,斗則俱傷。美國貿易霸凌行徑不僅不能讓美國“再次偉大”,也會危害國際經貿秩序,給全球經濟復蘇帶來嚴峻挑戰。中國從不畏懼任何壓力和挑戰,有信心迎難而上,化危為機,開拓一片新天地。

        美國不應將國內問題國際化,向貿易伙伴國家發難

        中國社會科學院副院長蔡昉認為,美國對中國及其他主要貿易伙伴大打貿易戰,不僅是一種針對他國的霸凌行為,而且極大危害全球經貿秩序,造成巨大的負外部性,旨在阻擋甚至逆轉經濟全球化。歷史潮流不可阻擋,這種倒行逆施終究會形成反向影響,使美國經濟反受其害。

        中國社會科學院美國研究所所長吳白乙說,近20年來,經濟全球化迅猛發展,美國從這一歷史進程中獲得巨額紅利。與此同時,經濟結構變化、收入分配不均等問題導致美國內部治理出現問題,其深層次原因在于資本主義經濟體系的內在矛盾性。美國不應將國內問題國際化,向貿易伙伴國家發難,將產業競爭力下降和部分社會群體收入下降歸咎于其他國家的發展和全球競爭。

        “今天的世界早已回不到各自為政的孤立時代,也沒有哪個國家能退回到自我封閉的孤島。”中國社會科學院歐洲研究所所長黃平表示,全球化時代,各國經濟互存互補,形成了你中有我、我中有你的局面。用孤立主義、單邊主義、貿易保護主義等套路,以換取與別人“脫鉤”或靠“本國優先”使自己“再次偉大”,都無濟于事。

        國務院發展研究中心對外經濟研究部副部長王金照認為,美國加征關稅和出口管制等措施損人不利己。由于中國生產的產品物美價廉,并且很多商品在美國占有相當高的市場份額,美國很難在短期內找到合適的替代供貨商。美國消費者和依賴中國生產零部件的生產企業將承擔相當大比例的關稅負擔。

        美國升級經貿摩擦加劇全球經濟下行風險,危害全球經貿秩序

        “將美國出現貿易赤字視為美國‘吃虧’,本身就是彌天大謊。”中國社會科學院原副院長李揚表示,一國出現貿易逆差,意味著該國國民超出本國的生產能力、享受了更多的物質財富,由于享受了質量高、價格便宜的產品和勞務,該國國民的福利得到顯著增進。

        “出爾反爾,不講誠信,將對美國國際信用造成嚴重損害。”商務部國際貿易經濟合作研究院美大所副所長周密認為,美方對中美貿易談判共識和承諾屢次出爾反爾,導致磋商進程屢屢受挫。這會使對美方的不信任感擴散至其他國家,如果美國持續透支其國際信用,各方對美方履行承諾的能力將更不信任。

        “美國破壞全球供應鏈、產業鏈與創新生態,對全球經濟增長、世界經濟分工格局以及全球迎接新工業革命等方面均造成了不良后果。”中國社會科學院經濟研究所所長黃群慧認為,世界經濟并不是一個只有順差國才能獲勝的游戲,在全球價值鏈分工的今天,打亂全球供應鏈和產業鏈布局會損害所有人的利益。

        “美國發起的貿易戰不僅事關中美兩國,更與世界經濟發展、國際關系穩定和國際法律秩序維護密切相關。”中國社會科學院國際法研究所副所長柳華文表示,美國對國際法合則用、不合則棄,更多的是用國際法約束別人,而不是自己。美國單方面發起貿易戰,片面追求自身利益至上,無視國際法,違反國際法基本準則,破壞了世界經濟增長和國際法律秩序。

        中國堅持做好自己的事,經濟發展韌性不斷增強

        專家表示,針對美國加征關稅的保護主義做法,中國為了維護自身的正當利益和國家尊嚴,有理有節地進行反制。從多個層面來看,中國都有“不怕打貿易戰”的底氣。

        從宏觀角度看,中國經濟開始出現內需主導的增長格局。最終消費對中國經濟增長的貢獻率從2010年的37.3%上升到2018年的76.2%。

        從產業角度看,中國正提升在全球供應鏈、產業鏈和價值鏈分工中的位置。中國科技投入已躍居世界第二,每年的大學畢業生人數全球第一,中國的企業已積累一定的技術和資金實力。

        “更重要的是,中國政府有應對挑戰、解決問題的智慧和能力。近年來隨著供給側結構性改革深入實施,中國經濟發展韌性不斷增強。未來中國還將進一步提升創新能力,進一步擴大市場開放,打造更高水平的開放平臺,形成更寬廣、更密切的朋友圈。”王金照說。

        專家們認為,在國際環境深刻復雜變化的背景下,中國始終堅持做好自己的事,保持冷靜清醒,展現定力和擔當,這一點不會改變。

        “中國的市場規模很大,政策回旋余地也很大,進一步深化改革,持續擴大開放,切實做好自己的事,就能夠迎難而上,化危為機,開拓一片新天地。”中國社會科學院工業經濟研究所黨委書記李雪松說。

         

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