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        智庫中國 > 

        數字經濟是高質量發展的重要推動力

        來源:北京日報 | 作者:李偉 | 時間:2019-06-10 | 責編:李曉曼

        李偉 第十三屆全國政協人口資源環境委員會主任、研究員
        我們正處在新一輪科技革命和產業變革蓄勢待發的時期,以互聯網、大數據、人工智能為代表的新一代信息技術日新月異。促進數字經濟和實體經濟融合發展,加快新舊發展動能接續轉換,打造新產業新業態,是各國面臨的共同任務。
        數字技術是新一輪科技革命和產業變革的主力軍
          當前,基于信息通信技術的創新發展催生了數字技術主導的新技術群落,引發新一輪科技革命加速推進。大數據、人工智能、物聯網與其他領域學科交叉融合,成為新一輪科技革命的突破口。除此之外,生物技術、新能源技術、新材料技術等一系列新興技術也取得重大突破。各類前沿技術呈現多點突破態勢,正在形成多技術群相互支撐、多頭并進的鏈式變革。
          未來15-20年,新一輪科技革命將進一步加快全球技術進步與創新步伐,深刻改變人們的生產和生活方式。從當前技術影響范圍、滲透深度,以及綜合世界各大機構對新一輪科技革命的預測看,數字技術具備了引發產業變革的關鍵特征,成為正在興起的新一輪科技革命和產業變革的主力軍。
          一方面,數字技術的創新已經從過去的單點突破進入多技術協同推進、群體性演變的爆發期。源于數字技術的顛覆性,云計算、物聯網、區塊鏈等新興技術不斷涌現,呈現出擴散速度加快、迭代周期縮短的特點,技術進步和創新將以指數方式加速發展。數字技術的交叉融合、深度融合特征更加明顯,并快速向各領域拓展。比如,數字技術與制造、能源、交通等各行業技術相結合,帶動了智能制造、智能電網、智慧交通的迅速增長。腦科學與數理、信息等學科領域的結合,正在催生腦—機交互技術,將極大帶動人工智能、復雜網絡技術發展。可以預見,基于數字技術衍生的具有良好發展前景的各種新技術將層出不窮,并在歷次科技革命基礎上向更高水平發展。
          另一方面,數字技術帶來的巨大市場需求和增長潛力,勢必引發國際產業分工和生產格局的大調整、大變革。在新技術革命驅動下,制造業服務化、專業化、產業鏈分工精細化等特征凸顯,進一步促進國際生產格局向網絡化、分布式方向發展,個性化定制、大規模定制,以及社交化的制造平臺等新制造模式不斷涌現。新技術革命還將為企業換道超車、邁入前沿帶來重大機遇,一些新興科技企業抓住“技術變軌”的機會窗口進入了世界領先行列,成為改變全球數字化格局的重要力量。在全球市值排行榜前十名公司中,數字企業已從2007年的1家增加到2018年的7家,其中包括中國的阿里和騰訊。目前,中國已經是全球領先的數字技術投資與應用大國,孕育了全世界三分之一的獨角獸公司。
        數字經濟是高質量發展的重要推動力
          近些年來,我國實體經濟數字化、網絡化、智能化水平不斷攀升。從人人互聯到萬物互聯、從海量數據到人工智能、從生活消費到生產制造,我國數字經濟高速增長。《中國數字經濟發展與就業白皮書(2019年)》顯示,2018年我國數字經濟規模達到31.3萬億元,占GDP比重為34.8%,成為推動高質量發展的重要力量。
          當前,支撐數字經濟發展的數字技術日益成熟,作為生產要素的大數據已逐步深入到社會生產全過程,并通過網絡和平臺載體不斷向全面、深度智能化方向發展。數字經濟深刻改變了傳統經濟的生產方式和商業模式,它所體現的創新、高效、包容、開放等特征符合高質量發展內涵。更重要的是,數字經濟帶動數字變革,將新技術新產業基因源源不斷地注入到高質量發展中。我國經濟越來越呈現數字化特征,越來越從數字經濟中汲取發展新動能。以數字產業化為基礎、產業數字化為主題的經濟活動,通過改造提升傳統產業競爭力,促進產業深度融合,助推我國經濟發展實現三大變革。
          第一,數字化有助于提升產品和服務質量,推動質量變革。我國傳統制造業生產方式相對落后,自主創新能力弱,產品質量總體不高。數字化轉型將改變傳統制造業的研發與生產流程,逐步打造數字化供應鏈。以生產制造業環節為例,通過對生產過程中產生的大量數據進行分析,可以進一步優化生產流程參數,并對可能出現的問題進行預判,提高產品和服務質量。
          第二,數字化有助于降低市場交易成本,推動效率變革。數字技術的發展和應用使交易成本大幅下降成為可能,并更好地促進市場出清,實現供需雙方的資源有效對接。隨著數字技術全面滲透到制造業的營銷、服務、生產、研發等環節,重點行業的數字化轉型進一步加快,推動了輕工、紡織、機械、建材等傳統行業全要素生產率整體提升。據工信部初步統計,在305個智能制造示范項目中,數字化轉型使生產效率平均提升37.6%,能源利用率平均提升16.1%,運營成本平均降低21.2%。
          第三,數字化有助于加快培育增長新動能,推動動力變革。新一輪科技革命帶來的是更加激烈的科技競爭,只有從傳統要素驅動轉變為創新驅動,高質量發展才會有不竭動力。數字技術本身就是科技革命產生的創新成果,并以數字化方式實現不同方式的創新,基于數據驅動的新動能正日趨成為經濟發展的主力。比如,數字化還催生了一批極具活力的新模式、新業態、新產業。

         

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